Rating unchanged since March
The latest assessment, reported by Ariva, leaves DZ Bank's "Buy" recommendation intact. The bank raised Traton's fair value from EUR 29 to EUR 38 on March 5, 2026, following the annual report, when it also upgraded the shares from "Hold" to "Buy". Schmidt then pointed to recovering demand in Europe and a turning point in North America.
Ariva displayed Traton shares at EUR 32.18, down 1.77%.
Full-year outlook holds despite fourth-quarter pressures
Traton reaffirmed its 2026 guidance on October 28. It expects growth of 0% to 7% in both vehicle sales and revenue, a group adjusted operating return on sales of 6.3% to 7.3%, and net cash flow at TRATON Operations of EUR 900 million to EUR 1.7 billion.
On the results call that day, CEO Christian Levin reiterated confidence in the full-year guidance. Management expects the fourth quarter to have the year's highest vehicle sales volume, but CFO Michael Jackstein cautioned that its margin could fall below the third quarter's level because of input-cost, supply-chain and foreign-exchange headwinds.
Jackstein said US tariff costs could reach about EUR 160 million in the fourth quarter, compared with about EUR 80 million in the third. He attributed the potential increase to Section 232 tariffs and higher volumes with fewer offsetting credits. Traton's nine-month report recorded EUR 188 million in US tariff costs, up from EUR 84 million a year earlier.
Quarterly growth and the Sinotruk profit effect
Results published on October 28 for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, showed vehicle sales of 78,907, a 10% year-over-year increase. Revenue grew 9% to EUR 11.3 billion, while adjusted operating profit rose 16%. The adjusted return on sales improved by 0.4 percentage points to 6.8%.
Over the first nine months, Traton generated EUR 33.3 billion in revenue, up 3%, and an adjusted operating result of EUR 2.31 billion, up 13%. Its adjusted return on sales reached 6.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points. Profit after tax rose to EUR 2.607 billion from EUR 1.036 billion, while earnings per share increased to EUR 5.21 from EUR 2.07.
The nine-month figures included gains related to Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited. Traton sold 7.10% of Sinotruk's shares for EUR 745 million, reducing its holding to 18.15%. With significant influence over Sinotruk ending, Traton reclassified its remaining stake to fair value.
The transaction generated a EUR 368 million disposal gain and a EUR 1.3 billion non-cash valuation gain. Management intends to exclude the combined Sinotruk-related pre-tax effect of about EUR 1.7 billion from the basis used to calculate the dividend.
Brand margins and electric-vehicle orders
Scania reported a third-quarter adjusted return on sales of 12.3%, supported by 7% growth in its vehicle-services business. The corresponding margins were 4.6% at MAN, 2.5% at International in North America and 10.1% at Volkswagen Truck & Bus.
Traton's battery-electric vehicle order intake increased 57% year over year in the third quarter and 49% over the first nine months. At IAA Transportation in September 2026, Scania and MAN presented next-generation long-haul electric trucks offering ranges of up to 720 kilometers.
