Three parties at the electoral threshold
The poll puts the AfD at 39 percent, compared with its election result of 38.2 percent. The SPD stands at 32 percent, down from 35.5 percent. Linke has risen from 6.5 percent to 9 percent, while the Greens have slipped from 5.7 percent to 5 percent.
The CDU and BSW also poll at 5 percent, the threshold for entering the state parliament. Both narrowly missed that cutoff in the election. Insa reports a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, leaving uncertainty over which of the three parties polling at the threshold would win seats.
INSA Consulere conducted the representative online survey from October 21 through 27, 2026, according to the Nordkurier. It questioned 1,000 eligible voters age 16 and older throughout Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, including supporters of all parties.
The state voted on September 20, 2026, with turnout reaching 78.1 percent, according to the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament. The AfD holds 32 of the legislature's 71 seats, the SPD has 29, and Linke and the Greens have five each.
The SPD, Linke and Greens agreed on October 9 to begin coalition negotiations after successful exploratory talks, DER SPIEGEL reported. Their preliminary agreement called for childcare to remain free, all hospital sites to be retained, greater citizen participation and a parliamentary inquiry into right-wing extremist networks.
Schwesig draws more opposition than support for federal roles
The survey also asked voters about possible federal roles for Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Opposition to her becoming national SPD chair stood at 42 percent: 22 percent were completely opposed and 20 percent somewhat opposed. Support totaled 39 percent, with 21 percent completely in favor and 18 percent somewhat in favor. The remaining respondents were indifferent or could not or would not answer.
A possible Schwesig candidacy for chancellor at the next federal election, scheduled for 2029, met with greater opposition. Some 45 percent opposed it, including 29 percent completely and 16 percent somewhat. Support again totaled 39 percent, with 18 percent strongly in favor and 21 percent moderately in favor.
The poll did not ask respondents why they opposed either prospect. During the state election campaign, Schwesig said she wanted to remain in Schwerin for another term and was not available for party positions in Berlin.
Schwesig previously served as federal family minister under Angela Merkel until 2017 and as a deputy national SPD chair until 2019. She also spent several months as the party's acting chair.
Views differ by party, gender and location
Men were more receptive than women to Schwesig becoming national SPD chair, the Nordkurier reported. Among men, 40 percent supported the idea and 36 percent opposed it. Among women, 36 percent supported it and 48 percent were opposed.
Support for her as party chair reached 57 percent among SPD voters, 52 percent among Linke voters, 53 percent among Green voters and 49 percent among CDU voters. AfD and BSW supporters were largely opposed.
For a chancellor candidacy, Schwesig had her strongest backing among SPD voters, at 64 percent. Support stood at 54 percent among both Linke and Green voters and 43 percent among CDU voters. By contrast, 67 percent of AfD voters and 61 percent of BSW voters opposed her candidacy.
Location also marked a divide: rural respondents opposed a Schwesig chancellor candidacy by 50 percent to 37 percent. City respondents were almost evenly split, with 42 percent in favor and 41 percent against.
Separate dispute over AfD votes in Saxony-Anhalt
In neighboring Saxony-Anhalt, a separate controversy concerns the unidentified sources of votes for two AfD politicians at the state parliament's opening session. Merkur reported that AfD politician Tobias Rausch was elected parliamentary president on October 6, 2026, receiving 48 of the 82 votes cast.
The AfD and BSW together hold 44 seats, meaning at least four votes for Rausch came from the CDU, SPD, Greens or Linke. The CDU leadership had advised its 14 lawmakers to abstain.
A draft affidavit was presented at a CDU parliamentary group meeting on October 13 but withdrawn after intense debate, without a vote. CDU lawmaker Tobias Krull described that sequence to Bild. Reports said the proposal had not originated with parliamentary group leader Sven Schulze.
BSW parliamentary group leader Thomas Schulze demanded that Sven Schulze, who is also acting minister-president, resign from all offices. AfD federal lawmaker Malte Kaufmann said he had filed a criminal complaint against Sven Schulze alleging coercion under Section 106 of the German Criminal Code.
