Lower prices draw official buyers
The figures, released Tuesday, November 3, come after gold fell from its January record of more than $5,400 per troy ounce, equivalent to about 31.1 grams. At roughly $3,900, the metal is trading almost 28% below that peak. Its third-quarter average was $4,262 per ounce.
John Reade, chief market strategist at the World Gold Council (WGC), said central banks remain eager to add gold to their foreign-exchange reserves and are using lower prices to increase purchases.
Although senior central bank officials decide whether to establish a gold-buying program, the team managing the reserve portfolio typically handles market purchases, Reade explained. Those teams monitor the average price paid, making central banks sensitive to price and inclined to buy somewhat more when gold becomes cheaper.
Purchases through September totaled 675 metric tons, up 6% from the first nine months of 2025. Strong second- and third-quarter buying more than offset a subdued start to the year, the WGC said.
China and Poland lead purchases
China's central bank was the largest buyer, acquiring more than 63 metric tons during the quarter. Poland Insight reported that its holdings reached about 2,410 metric tons, with gold accounting for 8.5% of its reserves. September marked its 23rd consecutive month of net buying; that month's addition of 23 metric tons was its largest since October 2023.
Poland followed with purchases of 40 metric tons. By the end of September, its central bank held 672.9 metric tons worth about $90.7 billion, representing 30.7% of official reserve assets, according to Poland Insight. The holdings left Poland, the world's tenth-largest official gold reserve holder, roughly 27 metric tons short of the 700-metric-ton target its management board approved on January 20, 2026.
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan each added 14 metric tons. The WGC also estimated that central banks acquired 120 metric tons through undisclosed purchases. Central banks do not have to announce their gold purchases, and China and Russia have previously accumulated substantial amounts without reporting them.
Official demand contrasts with weaker retail buying
Across the gold market, demand including over-the-counter activity totaled 1,369 metric tons in the third quarter, down 1% from a year earlier. Its value nevertheless increased 22% to $188 billion, according to the WGC's Gold Demand Trends report.
Physically backed gold exchange-traded funds returned to net inflows, adding 211 metric tons. That was 6% below the strong inflows recorded a year earlier, but enough to lift total ETF holdings to a record 4,256 metric tons.
Retail demand weakened. Purchases of bars and coins dropped 19% to 268 metric tons as investors held back amid uncertainty over gold's price direction. Jewelry demand fell 17% to 313 metric tons, the lowest third-quarter figure in the WGC's data series.
Technology demand, by contrast, increased 3% to 85 metric tons, its highest quarterly level since the fourth quarter of 2021. Electronics accounted for 72 metric tons, up 5%, supported by AI-related manufacturing.
The divergence also shaped the WGC's forecasts. Despite ETF demand exceeding expectations, the council lowered its forecast for the full-year increase in investment demand from 400 metric tons to 200 metric tons, citing notably slower bar-and-coin buying in the second half of 2026.
Central bank buying supports the outlook
The purchases follow a WGC survey published in June in which 89% of 76 participating central banks expected official gold holdings worldwide to increase. A record 45% planned to expand their own holdings. Reade said the actual buying now confirms those survey findings.
In its November 3 outlook, the WGC raised its forecast for full-year central bank demand and said purchases should at least match 2025 levels. The revision followed stronger-than-expected third-quarter buying and a modest upward adjustment to the second-quarter figures.
Reade believes recent central bank purchases have helped stabilize gold near $4,000 per ounce. Announcements of new official purchases also tend to excite other investors, he said, giving those decisions an important signaling effect.
DZ Bank's investment strategists also see scope for a recovery. In a recent forecast, they said changed U.S. interest-rate expectations had weighed on gold, but prices could rise again after a final U.S. rate move in 2026. Continuing support from factors including central bank purchases could bring gold back to around $5,000 over a one-year horizon, they forecast.
