Far-right AfD poised for decisive win in Saxony-Anhalt state election
Voters in Saxony-Anhalt head to the polls Sunday in a regional election that could reshape German politics, with the far-right Alternative for Germany party commanding a decisive lead and eyeing an unprecedented breakthrough into state governance.
The AfD, classified as a right-wing extremist organization by Germany's domestic intelligence agency since May 2025, has polled consistently above 40 percent in the eastern state of approximately 2.1 million people. Its Saxony-Anhalt branch was among three regional chapters already designated extremist before authorities upgraded the entire party's classification earlier this year.
The party's top candidate, 35-year-old Ulrich Siegmund, has attracted significant attention with his social media presence, amassing over 707,000 TikTok followers in a state with just 2.12 million inhabitants. At campaign rallies, supporters treat him like a celebrity as he confidently predicts the AfD will secure an absolute majority.
"It was the others who erected the firewalls," Siegmund told Bild newspaper. "If no one wants to work with us, then we'll just have to do it alone."
Such an outcome would mark a historic moment for post-war Germany. While the AfD won its first state election in Thuringia in September 2024 with roughly 30-33 percent of the vote, it has never governed a German state. The party has demonstrated growing strength across eastern Germany, winning 41 of 44 constituencies in former East German states during February 2025's federal election. Its support has even expanded westward, with the party more than doubling its vote share to 19.5 percent in Rhineland-Palatinate's March 2026 election.
All major German parties have maintained a firewall of non-cooperation with the AfD since its founding in 2013, a policy repeatedly reaffirmed by party leaders including Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Merz, who became chancellor in May 2025 after his CDU/CSU won February's snap election and formed a coalition with the SPD, now faces mounting pressure as his party trails the AfD in national polls.
The current state government, led by CDU Premier Sven Schulze in coalition with two smaller parties, hopes to assemble another multi-party alliance to maintain power despite the AfD's expected strong showing.
Economic grievances fuel support
The AfD has tapped into deep-seated economic resentment in eastern Germany. At reunification in 1991, East Germany's GDP per capita stood at approximately $7,395 compared to West Germany's $22,800—a threefold gap that persists more than 35 years later. Saxony-Anhalt itself was considered among Germany's poorest states in the early 2000s, with particularly high unemployment in former mining and chemical works regions in the south.
The party's campaign promises include what it calls a "remigration and deportation offensive," banning LGBTQ pride flags at public schools, and halting new wind farm construction. It has also cultivated nostalgia for communist East Germany while stoking lingering east-west divisions.
The German Economic Institute has warned that the AfD's immigration policies would prove ruinous for Saxony-Anhalt, whose aging and shrinking population depends heavily on foreign-born workers. The state's economy centers on chemistry, automotive manufacturing, and food production, with major cities including the capital Magdeburg, Halle, and Dessau-Roßlau.
Security and democratic concerns
Beyond economic impacts, security officials have raised alarm about potential intelligence risks. Thuringia's interior minister Georg Maier told Handelsblatt newspaper that the Kremlin "makes no secret of the fact that the AfD is the most important instrument for destabilising Germany" for Russian President Vladimir Putin, warning that an AfD-run state security apparatus could leak sensitive information to Moscow.
Thousands of opponents gathered at a "festival of democracy" rally in Magdeburg on Saturday, demonstrating against the prospect of far-right governance.
Political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder of Kassel University said an AfD victory would intensify criticism of Chancellor Merz's leadership, though he expects Merz to survive given the absence of strong rivals. "If the AfD wins in Saxony-Anhalt, Merz's critics will become even more vocal, and calls for better leadership will become impossible to ignore," Schroeder said.
Thursday's final ZDF poll gave the AfD 41 percent support, with the CDU at 23 percent, SPD at 8.5 percent, Greens at six percent, and the far-left Die Linke at 11.5 percent. Two smaller parties failed to reach the five-percent threshold for parliamentary representation.
One potential scenario involves the CDU forming a minority government with ad hoc support from Die Linke, though this would represent an unprecedented arrangement for the state.
In the campaign's final days, social media videos raised unsubstantiated claims of mail vote fraud at an elderly care home, which state authorities firmly denied. Parliamentary speaker Julia Kloeckner dismissed the speculation, telling Der Spiegel that "questioning elections without concrete evidence appears to have one goal: to sow distrust in our rules and to accept the results only if the outcome suits."
Siegmund has framed Sunday's vote as toppling a "domino" that will launch a political revolution from Saxony-Anhalt, propelling the AfD to national victory in Germany's 2029 federal election.
